By Dahiru Ali
For the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd.), the 2025 financial year was a period of stronger earnings, improved production and a more deliberate effort to demonstrate accountability. But it was also a year that showed how much further the national oil company must go if it is to meet the expectations attached to Nigeria’s petroleum resources.
The audited results tell a compelling story. Profit after tax rose by 33 per cent from ₦5.4 trillion in 2024 to ₦7.2 trillion in 2025, while earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation increased by 22 per cent to ₦18 trillion. Operating cash flow rose by 16 per cent to ₦12.8 trillion, return on equity improved to 16 per cent and the company declared a ₦5.8 trillion dividend. Government taxes, royalties and other remittances also rose by 39 per cent to ₦22.3 trillion.
What makes the performance particularly noteworthy is that revenue actually declined by 24 per cent to ₦34.5 trillion. NNPC attributed the decline largely to lower crude oil prices and reduced white-product volumes following the deregulation of the petroleum products market in 2024. The fact that profit increased while revenue fell suggests that improved operating discipline and cost management played a significant role.
At the media parley on the 2025 audited results, Group Chief Executive Officer, Engr. Bashir Bayo Ojulari, summed up the management’s interpretation of the numbers thus: “Profit grew because we improved the way we operate and we maintained discipline across the business.”
That is an important indicator of the direction in which the current management wants NNPC to move. Since the company became commercially driven under the Petroleum Industry Act, the challenge has been to combine commercial discipline with the responsibilities of an institution whose activities affect public revenue, energy security and the wider economy.
Production Recovery and a Higher Bar
The strongest operational achievement of 2025 was the improvement in crude production. Crude oil and condensate production averaged 1.77 million barrels per day, the company’s highest level in five years. Natural gas output also reached a three-year high of 7.2 billion standard cubic feet per day. Total oil and condensate production stood at 565.8 million barrels, up five per cent, while NNPC’s equity share increased by 11 per cent to 223.7 million barrels.
For an industry that has battled crude theft, insecurity, ageing infrastructure, underinvestment and operational disruptions, the recovery is significant. It indicates that sustained attention to producing assets and infrastructure can deliver results.
Ojulari said the gains reflected “sustained attention to our assets, infrastructure and delivery.”
Yet 1.77 million barrels per day should be viewed as a milestone, not the destination. NNPC is targeting crude production of 2 million barrels per day by 2027 and 3 million barrels per day by 2030. It is also targeting 10 billion cubic feet of gas per day by 2027 and 12 billion by 2030, alongside plans to mobilise $60 billion in investment across the energy value chain by 2030.
The current management must therefore be assessed on two levels: what it has achieved and whether it can sustain and build on that progress. The recovery in production is encouraging, but the harder task is to convert it into a sustained upward trajectory.
Ojulari acknowledged this when he said: “Stronger performance gives NNPC Limited more capacity to invest, contribute to public revenues and strengthen Nigeria’s energy security. It also gives us a higher standard to meet.”
That higher standard is crucial. Nigeria’s oil sector has a long history of ambitious production and investment targets that have not always translated into commensurate delivery. The current management has therefore given stakeholders clearer benchmarks against which it can be judged.
The global energy environment also makes the task more difficult. Nigeria remains exposed to fluctuations in crude prices, global demand, geopolitical developments and changing investment patterns in the international energy industry. NNPC’s own 2025 results demonstrate the vulnerability: stronger production did not prevent revenue from falling because of weaker crude prices and changes in the downstream market. The implication is clear. Nigeria must produce more, but it must also produce more efficiently and extract greater value from every barrel and cubic foot of gas.
Infrastructure, Gas and the Refining Challenge
The 2025 performance goes beyond the production figures. NNPC reported completion of the River Niger crossing and the 623-kilometre Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano mainline. It also commissioned the ANOH-OB3 Custody Transfer Metering Station, advanced the 300MMscfd ANOH Gas Processing Plant to start-up readiness, acquired 500 CNG-powered trucks and adopted a Technical Equity Partnership Model for refinery reform.
These developments are important because Nigeria’s energy challenge is no longer simply about crude oil. The country needs reliable gas for electricity and industry, functional infrastructure to transport energy, commercially viable refineries and stronger connections between its natural resources and the wider economy.
The increase in gas production to 7.2 billion standard cubic feet per day is therefore significant. But the 12 billion cubic feet per day target for 2030 indicates how much further the company intends to go. Gas could become an increasingly important source of domestic energy, industrial development and export earnings if the necessary infrastructure is completed and commercially managed.
Refining remains a more immediate test. NNPC says prospective partners have undertaken due diligence on refinery assets under its Technical Equity Partnership model, aimed at improving commercial viability and domestic energy security.
The real measure of success, however, will not be the announcement of partnerships or completion of due diligence. Nigerians will ultimately want to see reliable refining capacity operating efficiently and contributing meaningfully to domestic petroleum supply.
This is particularly important following the deregulation of the downstream market. NNPC itself identified reduced white-product volumes as one factor behind its lower 2025 revenue. The downstream strategy must therefore deliver more than functioning assets; it must deliver commercially sustainable operations.
Transparency as Part of the Transformation
Perhaps the most important institutional feature of the current management’s approach is its emphasis on transparency and accountability. NNPC is not an ordinary commercial enterprise. Its decisions have consequences for public revenue, energy security, foreign exchange and the daily lives of Nigerians.
At the media parley, Ojulari described public scrutiny as part of running a company of national importance. “Transparency means publishing the numbers and answering the questions they raise,” he said. That position represents an important shift in the relationship between NNPC and the public. Publishing audited accounts, holding earnings calls and engaging the media do not by themselves establish transparency, but they create the foundation for a system in which performance can be questioned and measured.
The real test will be consistency. Transparency should mean that production figures are regularly disclosed, projects can be tracked, investment commitments are measurable and management is prepared to explain delays or underperformance as openly as it celebrates achievements.
This is particularly relevant to the company’s plan to mobilise $60 billion in investment. Investors will require confidence in the company’s financial reporting, governance, project execution and commercial structures. Greater transparency can therefore serve both the public interest and NNPC’s investment ambitions.
The people dimension of the transformation is also noteworthy. More than 1,000 newly recruited professionals completed a one-year internship and training programme before being deployed across the company, while women now account for 23 per cent of leadership positions, compared with an industry average of 17 per cent.
Ojulari offered perhaps the simplest explanation of why this matters: “A production target cannot be met on a spreadsheet; it takes skilled teams, dependable assets and consistent execution.” That observation captures one of the enduring challenges of Nigeria’s oil industry. The country has never lacked targets. The difficulty has often been converting those targets into sustained delivery.
Taken together, the 2025 results present a generally positive, but unfinished, scorecard for the current NNPC management. Financial performance improved substantially. Production recovered to a five-year high. Gas output increased. Major infrastructure projects advanced, and the company has established clearer targets for production, gas and investment.
But the improvement should not be confused with the completion of the transformation.
The 1.77 million barrels per day production level is a significant recovery, but it must now become the platform for reaching two million and eventually three million barrels per day. The ₦7.2 trillion profit is impressive, but future performance will have to demonstrate that profitability can be sustained while the company invests heavily in production, gas infrastructure, refining and other strategic assets.
Most importantly, the management has raised the standard by which it wants to be judged. Its targets are now clearer; its financial performance is more visible and its leadership has publicly embraced scrutiny. For Nigeria, that may ultimately prove as important as the headline numbers.
The country does not merely need an NNPC that makes money. It needs an NNPC that can consistently convert its natural resources into national value, attract investment, strengthen energy security and operate with enough openness for Nigerians to understand how their resources are being managed.
The 2025 results suggest that the current management has made a credible start. The real test now is whether the stronger numbers can be sustained, whether the ambitious targets can be delivered and whether the emerging culture of transparency will remain firmly in place when the numbers are less favourable. As Ojulari acknowledged, better performance gives NNPC “a higher standard to meet.”
That is ultimately the measure of the 2025 scorecard: not simply that NNPC performed better, but whether it can turn that improvement into a durable transformation of Nigeria’s most strategically important energy institution.
