Hunger Protest: D-DAY in Nigeria?

President Bola Ahmad Tinubu shall today play host to some not-too-August visitors, as Nigerians from all works of life pour onto the streets, if it all go as planned, to demand better treatment from the leadership of their country.

More Proactive Push Needed For Central Bank Digital Currencies – IMF   

The head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has urged countries to make a more proactive push to develop Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). Eleven countries, including a number in the Caribbean, and Nigeria, have already launched CBDCs. Around 120 others are exploring them, although progress and approaches differ widely and a few have even abandoned the idea altogether. “We may be at a point where the public sector needs to offer a little more guidance,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said in a speech in Singapore. “Not to crowd out, not to disrupt,” she added. “But to act as a catalyst, to ensure safety and efficiency – and to counter fragmentation.” She made her remarks as the IMF published the first instalment of a “virtual handbook” on CBDCs, designed to help countries with the design and set-up process and ensure that the new technologies are globally interoperable. Supporters say CBDCs will modernise payments with new functionality and provide an alternative to physical cash, which seems in terminal decline. But questions remain as to why they represent an advance when current systems are already capable of many of the proposed benefits, and countries such as Nigeria that have already launched CBDCs are seeing very low uptake among the public. Georgieva said that with technology advancing so rapidly, countries needed to push ahead with development now to avoid getting caught out in future. “If anything, we need to raise another sail to pick up speed,” she said, likening the efforts to a nautical journey. “The world is changing faster than most imagined”.

IMF Downgrades Nigeria’s Economic Growth By 2.9%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded Nigeria’s economic growth by 2.9 per cent for 2023. In July, the Fund had projected a 3.2 per cent growth for Nigeria in 2023. The lender however warned that the growth would be impacted by security issues in the oil sector. In its October World Economic Outlook with the themed, ‘Navigating Global Divergences,’ posted on its website Tuesday, the IMF said, “Growth in Nigeria is projected to decline from 3.3 per cent in 2022 to 2.9 per cent in 2023 and 3.1 per cent in 2024, with negative effects of high inflation on consumption taking hold. “The forecast for 2023 is revised downward by 0.3 percentage point, reflecting weaker oil and gas production than expected, partially as a result of maintenance work.” The International lender, while commenting on its new prediction for the country, said: “ For the sub-Saharan African region, growth is expected to decline to 3.3 per cent in 2023 due to worsening weather shocks, the global slowdown, and domestic supply issues, the IMF said.  However, growth would pick up by 2024 to 4.0 per cent in 2024, which is still below the region’s historical average of 4.8 per cent. It also stated that global economic growth was projected to slow from 3.5 per cent in 2022 to 3.0 per cent in 2023 and 2.9 per cent in 2024, well below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8 per cent, the IMF declared. “Advanced economies are expected to slow from 2.6 per cent in 2022 to 1.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.4 per cent in 2024 as policy tightening starts to bite. Emerging market and developing economies are projected to have a modest decline in growth from 4.1 per cent in 2022 to 4.0 per cent in both 2023 and 2024″, the IMF said. The global financial institute stated that global inflation is expected to decelerate to 6.9 per cent in 2023 and 5.8 per cent in 2024 from the present 8.7 per cent in 2022.  

IMF Advocates Fiscal Adjustments As Solution African Countries’ Debts 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has urged African governments to re-anchor fiscal policy through a credible medium-term strategy to avoid a debt crisis. According to the Fund in its report ‘How to Avoid a Debt Crisis in Sub-Saharan Africa’, it stated that to avoid a debt crisis, African countries seek to achieve key debt targets. The Bretton Woods Institute said the average debt ratio in the region has almost doubled in 10 years adding that the average debt ratio to gross domestic product (GDP) has increased to 60 percent as of 2022, which is a 30 percent rise compared to the figures of 2013. According to the Fund, this is what makes debt repayment costlier. “In most sub-Saharan African countries, fiscal policy focuses excessively on short-term goals and is not guided by a clear medium-term strategy. This lack of anchoring has resulted in frequent breaches of fiscal rules and ever-increasing public debt levels. “A more strategic approach to fiscal policy would be preferable by setting explicit debt targets that integrate key policy trade-offs between debt sustainability and development objectives, rather than focusing narrowly on short-term fiscal deficits. “The paper suggests a novel approach to estimating country-specific medium-term debt anchors, which ensures that debt service costs remain manageable. “The region’s ratio of interest payments to revenue, a key metric to assess debt servicing capacity and predict the risk of a fiscal crisis, has more than doubled since the early 2010s and is now close to four times the ratio in advanced economies,” the IMF said. In the report, the IMF said more than half of the low-income countries on the continent are at high risk or already in debt distress as at the end of last year. The multilateral also said mobilising more domestic revenue through the elimination of tax exemptions or digitalising filing and payment systems is key to avoiding a debt crisis as well. “Sub-Saharan African countries tend to rely excessively on expenditure cuts to reduce their fiscal deficits. “Although this may be warranted in some circumstances, revenue measures, like eliminating tax exemptions or digitalizing filing and payment systems, should play a greater role.” The IMF noted that mobilising domestic revenue is less detrimental to growth in countries where initial tax levels are low, whereas the cost associated with reducing expenditures is particularly high given Africa’s large development needs.

Global current account balances to narrow in 2023 -IMF

Global current account balances increased for the third consecutive year in 2022 and are projected to narrow in 2023, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), has said. According to the Fund, the widening over the three years reflects several factors, including the unequal impact of the COVID-19 crisis in 2020–21 and the increase in commodity prices fueled by the economic recovery in 2021 and supply concerns following the Russia-Ukraine war.   In a report titled, ‘External rebalancing in turbulent times; the Fund stated that the absence of widespread sudden stops during the pandemic enabled deficit economies to avoid an abrupt contraction of their current account deficits. “Currency markets exhibited significant fluctuations in 2022, driven by changes in the terms of trade and monetary tightening,” the Fund stated.   The report stated that an accumulation of official foreign exchange reserves played a limited role in net capital outflows from emerging market and developing economies just as net creditor and debtor positions remained at historically high levels. “Over the medium term, global current account balances are expected to narrow as the impacts of the pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine recede. However, several risks surround this outlook, including a renewed increase in commodity prices, a slower-than-expected recovery in China, or a slower fiscal consolidation in economies with current account deficits. While the impact of geoeconomic fragmentation on global current account balances is unclear, it would unambiguously reduce global welfare. The excess global current account balances (defined as the sum of absolute values of current account surpluses and deficits in excess of their norms) have remained unchanged since 2021, after being on a declining trend for several years. While the widening of global current account balances is not necessarily a negative development, excess global current account balances can fuel trade tensions and protectionist measures or increase the risk of disruptive currency and capital flow movements. “Narrowing excess global current account balances would reduce the risk of financial crisis and improve welfare. Policy efforts, in both excess surplus and deficit economies, are required to promote external rebalancing. Where excess current account deficits in 2022 partly reflected larger-than-desired fiscal deficits, fiscal consolidation will help stabilize debt-to-GDP ratios and close current account gaps.” The Fund pointed out in the report that in economies where excess current account surpluses persist, higher fiscal spending in targeted areas will help them to meet their goals in climate, digital, and energy security, while reducing their excess surpluses. “Economies with lingering competitiveness challenges will need to address structural bottlenecks. Multilateral cooperation will help counter risks of geo-economic fragmentation, including efforts to strengthen the current rule-based trading system, and facilitate the green transition. Successfully completing the 16th General Review of Quota would ensure that the IMF is adequately resourced to serve as an anchor of the global financial safety net,” it further explained.

IMF supports Nigeria’s exchange rate unification

The exchange rate unification policy of the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has received the backing of global lender, the International Monetary Fund (IMF).  Over the last several years, Nigeria has been operating a dual exchange rate regime which had led to round tripping with many Nigerian businesses preferring to trade dollars than engage in their legitimate businesses. According to the Apex Bank had in a statement abolished the dual exchange rate collapsing it into the Investors Exporters (I&E) window.  The regulator stated that it is expected to be a willing seller and a willing buyers  With the policy, all applications for medicals, school fees, business travel allowance/personal travel allowance, and SMEs would now go through the I&E window. in a short statement, on Friday, IMF’s Resident Representative in Nigeria, Ari Aisen said it would support the federal government as it implement the new reform.  “The Fund greatly welcomes the authorities’ decision to introduce a unified market-reflective exchange rate regime in line with our long-standing recommendations. We stand ready to support the new administration in its implementation of FX reforms.” The Bretton Woods institute and experts consistently warned the federal government on the dangers of keeping a dual exchange rate saying it created room for arbitrage. 

MENA countries vulnerable to rising financial risks – IMF

Volatile growth, high universal subsidies, and loss-making state-owned enterprises expose many low- and middle-income economies in the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan to such fiscal risks. These factors combine with adverse external developments such as recent interest-rate rises and food and fuel price surges to put public finances under pressure in many countries. In a new report titled the “MENAPEG”, the Fund averred that it often leads to a situation where budget revenue and spending often end up far away from government plans. Despite the frequency of these events, policymakers are often caught off guard. Such shocks force them to make ad hoc cuts to development and other priority spending. This also limits many countries’ ability to use fiscal policy to smooth economic slowdowns, precisely when it is needed most. The report noted that economic growth is more volatile than in other parts of the world just as high reliance on resource revenue and pervasive universal energy and food subsidies across the region have also exposed budgets to fluctuations in commodity prices. “Second, state ownership of non-financial corporations and banks in these countries can generate sizable government obligations that can come due when negative events occur, known as contingent liabilities. For example, a public electric or water utility company that faces large operational losses might require government financial assistance to continue providing services. “Many state-owned enterprises (SOE) in the region are financially weak and require regular government cash injections. This often reflects their role in fulfilling quasi-fiscal activities such as selling goods and services at below market rates or creating jobs, rather than being run on a commercially sound basis. Contingent liabilities may also be arise from public-private partnerships (PPPs). For example, certain PPP contracts might require government to compensate a private partner if collections, as in toll road projects, fall short of projections,” the Fund noted. As a way of addressing this, the Fund urged policy makers in the region to strengthen their capacity to analyze and manage fiscal risks. However, the report said, the region’s governments still need to take steps to enhance fiscal risk data collection, identification, analysis, and management capacity. Economic reforms can help address fiscal risks at the source. For instance, stronger macroeconomic frameworks can lessen growth volatility. Governance reforms and asset divestment can moderate contingent liabilities or lower the odds of their materialization. And improved budget processes reduce the likelihood of surprises. Given various uncertainties, fiscal risks in the Middle Eastern and North African countries cannot be fully avoided. However, better risk awareness and stronger fiscal risk management will reduce budgetary surprises and provide firm ground for long-term development policies.