African nations have recorded the sharpest rise in new breast cancer cases globally, with Equatorial Guinea leading the surge at 312 per cent, according to a new report from the Global Burden of Disease Study published on the website of The Lancet.
The study, released Monday, analyzed data from population-based cancer registries, national vital registration systems, and interviews with family members or caregivers of women who died from breast cancer. It provides updated global, regional, and national estimates of female breast cancer burden and associated risk factors from 1990 to 2023 across 204 countries and territories, with projections extending to 2050.
Equatorial Guinea Records Highest Increase
Between 1990 and 2023, Equatorial Guinea recorded the highest increase in new breast cancer cases worldwide at 312 per cent. The country also saw the second-highest rise in breast cancer-related deaths, which climbed by 212 per cent during the same period.
Other African countries experiencing sharp increases in new cases include:
- Ethiopia – 207 per cent
- Egypt – 189 per cent
- Democratic Republic of the Congo – 160 per cent
- Mauritania – 141 per cent
- Uganda – 135 per cent
- Mali – 133 per cent
- Liberia – 129 per cent
Nigeria Faces Growing Public Health Burden
In Nigeria, the study revealed a substantial increase in both breast cancer incidence and mortality, highlighting an escalating public health crisis and the urgent need for stronger prevention, early detection, and treatment strategies.
In 2023 alone, Nigeria recorded 53,500 new breast cancer cases — representing a staggering 542.9 per cent increase since 1990. The age-standardised incidence rate stood at 72.1 per 100,000 in 2023, marking a 108.8 per cent rise over three decades.
Breast cancer deaths in Nigeria reached 26,200 in 2023, reflecting a 408.3 per cent increase since 1990. The age-standardised death rate rose to 38.7 per 100,000, a 73.5 per cent increase compared to 1990 levels.
Global Death Toll Projected to Rise by 44% by 2050
Globally, the study projects that annual breast cancer deaths will increase by 44 per cent — from 764,000 in 2023 to nearly 1.4 million by 2050 — with most of the rise occurring in low- and lower-middle-income countries.
The number of new cases worldwide is also expected to climb by about one-third, rising from 2.3 million in 2023 to more than 3.5 million by 2050.
Breast cancer remains the most common cancer among women globally. In 2023, an estimated 2.3 million new cases were diagnosed, with 73 per cent occurring in high- and upper-middle-income countries.
The study found that women aged 55 and older were three times more likely to be diagnosed with breast cancer in 2023 than women aged 20 to 54. However, incidence rates among younger women have risen since 1990, while rates among older women have remained relatively stable.
Researchers noted that these differences may reflect shifting age patterns and variations in risk factors between pre- and post-menopausal women.
Lifestyle Risk Factors Account for 28% of Cases
The report attributed 28 per cent of global breast cancer cases to six modifiable risk factors, including smoking, high blood sugar, obesity, high red meat consumption, alcohol use, and low physical activity.
High red meat consumption had the largest impact, contributing to nearly 11 per cent of total healthy life lost. High alcohol intake and low physical activity each accounted for two per cent of healthy life lost.
The study emphasized that maintaining a healthy lifestyle — avoiding smoking, engaging in regular physical activity, reducing red meat intake, limiting alcohol consumption, and maintaining a healthy weight — could significantly reduce breast cancer risk.
Call for Stronger Health Systems
The study’s lead author, Lisa Force, stressed the need for coordinated global action to strengthen health systems.
Force highlighted the importance of ensuring functional healthcare systems capable of early diagnosis and comprehensive treatment in all countries. She also called for reducing the cost of breast cancer therapies and integrating essential breast cancer services into universal health coverage schemes to protect patients from catastrophic healthcare expenses and improve survival outcomes.
As projections point to a continued rise in cases and deaths, experts warn that without urgent interventions, the global burden of breast cancer — particularly in Africa — will intensify in the coming decades.
