Russia-Ukraine Crisis Affecting Demand For Nigeria’s Crude, Says NNPCL

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has provided insight into how the lingering conflict between Russia and Ukraine has impacted Nigerian crude oil inflows in the international oil market, leading to a dip in demand from the once-dependable Asian market at the onset of hostilities in the Eastern bloc. Maryamu Idris, Executive Director, Crude & Condensate, NNPC Trading Limited, who said this in a panel presentation at the Argus European Crude Conference in London, added that that the substantial price shocks impacting commodity and energy prices globally, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has triggered a situation where India, a primary destination for Nigerian grades, increased its appetite for discounted Russian barrels to the detriment of some Nigerian volumes. “To illustrate the extent of this shift, Nigeria’s crude exports to India dwindled from approximately 250,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the six months preceding the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine to 194,000 in the subsequent six months afterwards. And so far, this year, only around 120,000 bpd of Nigerian crude volumes have made their way to India,” she said. On the other hand, she noted that the Nigerian crude flow to Europe has increased in a bid to fill supply gaps left by the ban on Russian crude, pointing out that six months before the war, 678,000 bpd of Nigerian crude grades went to Europe, compared to 710,000 bpd six months later and 730,000 bpd so far this year. “This trend makes it evident that Nigerian grades are increasingly becoming a significant component in the post-war palette of European refiners. Several Nigerian distillate-rich grades have become a steady preference for many European refiners, given the absence of Russian Urals and diesel. Forcados Blend, Escravos Light, Bonga, and Egina appear to be the most popular, and our latest addition — Nembe Crude – fits well into this basket. This was a strong factor behind our choice of London and the Argus European Crude Conference as the most ideal launch hub for the grade,” Idris also said. On production challenges, Idris remarked that, like many other oil-producing countries, Nigeria had faced production challenges aggravated by the COVID-19 pandemic, including reduced investment in the upstream sector, supply chain disruptions impacting upstream operations, ageing oil fields, and oil theft by unscrupulous elements. These factors, she said, contributed to production declines in the second half of 2022 and early 2023. Idris, however, noted that the challenges are fast becoming a thing of the past with the introduction and implementation of a new framework for the domestic petroleum industry (the PIA of 2021), rejuvenating the business landscape, and re-positioning NNPC Limited to adopt a more commercial approach to the management of the nation’s hydrocarbon resources. According to her, NNPC Limited has secured vital partnerships with notable financial institutions to promote upstream investments to restore and sustainably grow production capacity in the coming years. “NNPC Limited is championing concerted efforts in partnership with host communities and private stakeholders to address the security and environmental challenges in the Niger Delta to further fortify production growth. Suffice to say we have already begun seeing significant progress on the rebound. In September 2023, Nigeria recorded its highest crude oil and condensate output in nearly two years, reaching 1.72 million barrels per day. This, we believe, is just the beginning of our production rebound.” She affirmed that in addition to sustainably growing upstream production volumes, NNPC Limited is also increasing its participation in the downstream sector in line with a ‘wells-to-wheels’ approach, taking the country’s unique hydrocarbon molecules as close as possible to end-users. The vehicle for this, she said, is the restructured NNPC Trading Company, focused on growing NNPC’s presence in the global market for crude, condensate, gas, and petroleum products. The Argus Crude European Crude Conference Panel Session was held with the theme, ‘The Invisible Hand: How Are Shareholders and Asset Managers Meeting the Crude Industry? What Does This Mean for the Future of Crude in Europe?’ Vice President Crude of Argus, James Gooder, moderated the event.

Current oil output unlikely to change as OPEC meets Friday

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is not likely going to make any changes to the current oil output policy as tighter supplies and resilient demand drive an oil price rally. Ministers from the OPEC and allies led by Russia, known as OPEC+, meet on August 4 and the panel, called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, can call for a full OPEC meeting if warranted. Oil has rallied to a three-month high this week above $85 a barrel for Brent crude, as tighter supply and rising demand outweigh concern that interest rate hikes and stubborn inflation could hit economic growth.The Six OPEC+ sources said the Committee would probably not make any changes to existing policy during Friday’s online meeting as one of them cited the rising oil price as a reason to take no action.The OPEC and the Saudi Energy Ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment on Tuesday.In the latest comments from an OPEC member about the market, the energy minister for the United Arab Emirates told Reuters on July 21 that current OPEC+ actions were sufficient for now and the group was “only a phone call away” if any further steps are needed. The UAE minister sits on the JMMC, which is chaired by Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman. Still, a surprise cannot be ruled out. The Saudi minister in July said OPEC+ would “continue the effort at surprising markets”. In April, several OPEC+ members announced cuts just ahead of a JMMC meeting that was expected to take no action. At its last policy meeting in June, OPEC+ agreed on a broad deal to limit supply into 2024 and Saudi Arabia pledged a voluntary production cut for July that it has since extended to include August. Analysts told Reuters last week they expected Saudi Arabia to extend the voluntary cut for another month to include September. National Australia Bank said in a report on Tuesday that it expected the Saudis to announce an extension of their voluntary cut at the committee meeting on Friday.