Rising Oil Prices Good For FG, Bad For Nigerians, Says Rewane

Goldman Sachs has predicted oil price will likely rise to $100 again, citing lower production output from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), amongst others. Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives Company (FDC) Limited, Bismarck Rewane, says it will only increase revenue to governments but will not benefit Nigerians. “Globally, oil prices trade at $95/b and are projected to hit $100/b by year-end due to supply shortages. While government revenue, Federal Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) could increase in naira terms, Nigeria’s reliance on imported energy products (LPG, diesel, petrol and kerosene) amid a falling naira means higher food and transport costs, exacerbating inflationary pressures”, said Rewane in a statement Sunday. He said, these will be major considerations for the MPC at its next meeting, whenever that will be. Nonetheless, we expect the MPC to remain hawkish. Rewane in its FDC Prism Sunday however said, some form of looking inward could solve Nigeria’s economic woes. “Viable options would be improving the value addition of top agricultural traded products like cashew and cocoa, as well as mineral resources like steel. More importantly, Nigeria needs to show its political will, improve access, and encourage local businesses, particularly SMEs, to participate in the AfCFTA by removing non-tariff barriers, he said. Also meanwhile, oil and gas companies keep reporting meaty profits and investors are rediscovering their love of hydrocarbons. At the recent World Petroleum Congress (WPC) in Calgary, oil executives and government officials both warned against the continued push to discourage investment in new hydrocarbon production. “There seems to be wishful thinking that we’re going to flip a switch from where we’re at today to where it will be tomorrow,” Exxon’s chief executive said during the event. “No matter where demand gets to, if we don’t maintain some level of investment industry, you end up running shorter supply which leads to higher prices,” Darren Woods also said. This is exactly what we are currently witnessing in Europe and the United States. Because of the transition push, oil producers are being extra cautious with production growth. Also, they are prioritizing shareholder returns to keep shareholders on, so it pays for them to be cautious. In Europe, the supermajors are being squeezed by windfall profit taxes, activist pressure, and increasingly restrictive legislation, so they are turning elsewhere. Shell is tapping billions of potential barrels in Namibia, and Total is considering a $9billion commitment to oil exploration in Suriname. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s oil output could increase to 2.1 million barrels per day by December 2024 after the country secured $13.5 billion in investment pledges over the next twelve months from oil majors. The companies agreed to invest a total of $55.2 billion by 2030 – including the $13.5 billion over the next twelve months – to lift crude production, according to a statement from the president’s office.Nigeria’s oil output stood at 1.18 million bpd in August 2023, according to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), meaning production would nearly double by the end of next year. Nigeria is the top oil producer in Africa but large-scale oil theft has over the years cost the country billions of dollars, while dwindling investment in the sector has also curtailed output.The losses from theft and a lack of new projects have reduced oil exports sharply, eroding foreign currency earnings in Africa’s biggest economy.

Tinubunomics: An Elaboration of Economist Niran Olayinka’s Analysis

I will first and foremost like to commend our dear brother Mr. Niran Olayinka for penning on page 18 of today’s ThisDay Newspaper, this simply but beautifully written analytical article on President Tinubu’s recently deployed or unveiled economic reform policies. The beauty of the article is its easily accessible language that was devoid of the typical technical arrogance and complexity one usually encounters with seasoned economists of his caliber. His analysis, while being technically sound, adopts a language that is accessible to the “common man”. Contextualized in a church sermon and the well-known story of David and Goliath, the article sets the tone that everyone was welcomed aboard. The analogy of David being mocked by his own brothers is also apt. The most virulent critics of President Tinubu’s policies on social media sadly have been his own kindreds, the Yoruba. Of course, being the cosmopolitan people that we are, we Yorubas do not believe in circling the wagon or being shy to criticize our own, but as is customary with us, some of the Yoruba critics of Tinubu have gone beyond objective analysis and have laced their criticisms with venom, envy and bad belle. Mr. Niran Olayinka’s analysis on the issue of subsidy removal as has been universally acknowledged is long overdue and a no-brainer. Anytime the government places it’s finger and in the case of the oil subsidy scam, the government placed its two feet on the supply-demand-price equilibrium. What results is the mafia-style rent collection behavior and insane corruption that have plundered our commonwealth for decades. With the subsidy removed, we have seen the interplay and moderating power of the market on human behavior, on Nigerian driving habits and our consumption pattern. We have seen drastic drop in our national average petrol (PMS) consumption due to behavioral change but more so, credited to the removal of the incentive to profiteer from oil smuggle across our borders. Our country can no longer serve as the Santa Claus doling out petrol freebies to our neighbors in West Africa. The perennial long queues for PMS have abated and the economy-crushing traffic jams on our urban landscape have reduced. I was shocked that it took me just over two hours to travel from Ibadan to the airport on a recent visit. However, in order for the nation to derive the full- and long-term benefits of the oil subsidy removal policy, government must make as its highest priority, the resuscitation and expansion of our crude oil refining capacity, driven largely by the private sector. We hope the newly created ministry of Marine and Blue Economy signifies a commitment to tapping into all the benefits (up and downstream) of the marine economy including our off-shore oil potentials. On student loan, while it is a welcomed policy to reduce the obscene over-dependence of our tertiary institutions on federal allocation for their sustenance, we will not get to the promised land without major structural reform in our entire education system and specifically our higher education sector. The wasteful misalignment between the products of our higher institutions; be it its graduates or its research output or lack thereof, and the critical areas of needs in our economy must be corrected immediately. Our universities are not churning out the right quantity and right quality of university graduates needed to drive a dynamic 21st century digital economy. Simply put our tertiary institutions are producing square pegs for an economy’s round holes. Many of our professors are still recycling lectures from the dinosaurian age and are therefore impacting the obsolete knowledge to our youngsters thereby causing immeasurable damage to our economy. Furthermore, while Mr. Olayinka drew examples from the US and the UK student loan schemes, we must not gloss over what an intractable and monumental national financial crisis the student loan scheme has become for those countries, especially the US. We need to investigate the crisis in the US student loan scheme for lessons to be learned to guide the deployment and implementation of our nascent program. Millions of Americans have student loan debt, amassing to more than $1.6 trillion by the end of last year, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The burden of these loans has disproportionately fallen on the shoulders of students from the lower strata of the economy. It’s no use burdening a young Nigerian with a loan of 2 million Naira on a degree that guarantees only a spot in the unemployment market. On forex policy, that is not my forte. However, we have to find the safe middle ground between the corruption-ridden insanity of the round tripping behavior that the CBN forex policy encouraged in which the rich were making billions of Naira from simply converting forex received from the CBN to black market trading, and a free-floating forex market. No sane economy nor a responsible government can afford to leave total control of its currency to the vagaries of an imperfect market where speculative and predatory behavior are rampart. While Mr. Niran Olayinka highlighted the increase in revenue inflow into the different tiers of government as a result of the devaluation of the Naira, it would not translate into better living condition for the populace until we have full local government autonomy. We must rescue our local government administrator from the thieving and predatory fingers of the monarchical governors at the state level who have usurped the citizens’ right to elect the people who have the most direct impact on their welfare, the local government administration. But would rather prefer to impose their hand selected cronies to manage local government allocations as their fiefdoms.  Once we have assured the autonomy of the local given government, we the people must then take the next critical storm to hold them accountable for the judicious use of our commonwealth. We also must elect the best of us to serve at the local government level. That is a challenge the Ijesha Development Council (IDC) and other communities across the country must make