CBN’s Monetary Policy Committee Meeting And The Frenzy

The atmosphere in Nigeria’s financial sector is in a state of frenzy. Stakeholders are befuddled on why the apex bank’s monetary policy committee has not met. This is because the CBN had twice postponed the meeting under the leadership of its new Governor. The first postponement scheduled to hold shortly after the appointment of Mr. Cardoso and his four deputy governors, was obviously put on hold to enable them settle down. The reason could also be that the new management team needs time to study and digest President Tinubu’s 8-point agenda and current trends in the financial system to align them with his vision. Mr. Cardoso at the NASS screening had promised to ensure the independence of CBN. He also pledged to ensure that the CBN under his watch will play its role as a catalyst for growth, and adviser to the government. He said “his-CBN” will shy away from interloping responsibilities. It is also a common knowledge that President Tinubu had ordered a clean house of the Bank believed to have veered of its mandate under the immediate past governor. It is also a public knowledge and concern that the Naira has been under attack by speculators and rent seekers, a chronic headache for the Bank’s new helmsmen. Forex illiquidity has also become malignant. Thus, convening the MPC meetings amidst these challenges may not be an immediate priority rather they have been unobtrusively addressing and stabilizing the financial sector. The gains of these efforts are visible, though the parallel market is still chaotic. The postponement of what was supposed to be its last meeting for the year further heightens the palpable fear and uncertainties of the consequences of the MPC not meeting. Stakeholders’ fear cannot be dismissed as Nigerians battle economic hardship, rising food inflation and unbridled Naira depreciation. However, the CBN Act 2007 section 12 saddles the Committee to ensure price stability and support economic policy of the federal government. The Committee consists of the Governor as the chairman, the four deputy governors, two members of Board of Directors, two members appointed by the Governor, and two members appointed by the President to formulate monetary and credit policy. It is the highest policy making organ of the Bank responsible for reviewing economic and financial conditions in the economy. It also determines the appropriateness of policy applications in short to medium term, and regularly reviews Bank’s monetary policy framework, and adopt changes when necessary. The Act mandates the Committee to communicate monetary and financial policy decisions effectively to the public and must ensure the credibility of the model of transmission mechanism of monetary policy. It is to meet bi-monthly, except otherwise (as it is the case presently) or on emergency. Until the appointment of the present CBN Governor, the Committee had met four times under the last dispensation. It is also a public knowledge that boards of federal parastatals and agencies were dissolved by the President with many yet to be reconstituted. The CBN board is one of those dissolved and yet to be reconstituted, neither is it a public knowledge that the President has nominated his two candidates. Hence, the Bank presently does not have the required number to form a quorum, nor the Governor and his deputies have the constitutional mandate to overtly make certain monetary policy decisions without the approval of the Board. The concern by the public is normal particularly the way economic saboteurs have been attacking the Naira and manipulating the parallel forex exchange market. The concern is also noted considering the latest inflationary figure, 27.33%, released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). But to allay the fears of the public, the Bank’s spokesman, Dr. Isa Abdulmumin had on the eve of the scheduled September MPC meeting issued a press statement to announce its postponement. He regretted any inconvenience the change in date may have caused the Bank’s publics. The hullabaloo over non-holding of the meetings may have been misplaced but expected. And with Nigeria’s current economic reality, it behooves the economic managers to be strategic in meeting economic saboteurs at their wits ends. Notable economists and financial technocrats have entertained worries over continuous postponement of the organ’s meeting. They believed it may further heighten economic uncertainties. Mr. Boluwafemi Agboladun, a chartered accountant, expressed fears that the silence from the Bank amidst economic turbulence is unsettling as no concrete reason was given for not holding the meetings. He was however quick to add that the strategy adopted so far by the new management of the Bank is yielding positive dividend. There is stability in the forex market, and Naira exchange rate is no longer volatile. The strategic management adopted by the CBN so far, he noted, is commendable, making currency peddler unsure of what next is coming out from the Bank. Agboladun also felt that the new CBN Governor may have decided to start the new year with his own monetary policy calendar after he would have gotten a clear heads-on of the fiscal direction to align it with his monetary policy philosophy. He stressed that, it is better for the CBN and the government to have a clear distinction in roles, unlike the muddled and overlapped responsibilities witnessed in the last administration. Feranmi Deepak, a public commentator, was not surprised that the meeting, though statutory, has suffered two postponements. He was only worried that the outcome of the meetings would have avail the public of the monetary policy direction of Mr. Cardoso, as it would have road mapped investment decisions by local and foreign investors. The CBN, he observed, may also be taking its time coming out with its agenda. This, he noted, may be due to the ongoing economic diplomacy drive of the President who has been unrelenting in his travels, marketing Nigeria. Therefore, the CBN, he said, “may be collating all he has been saying to the investing community to develop its monetary policy roadmap as government banker and advisor”. He was optimistic that the MPC meeting would assume

Nigeria’s Q3 GDP Grows 2.54% – NBS

In the third quarter of 2023, Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.54 per cent (year-on-year) in real terms. This growth rate is higher than the 2.25 per cent recorded in the third quarter of 2022 and higher than the second quarter 2023 growth of 2.51 per cent. In its Gross Domestic Report Q3 2023, released on Friday, the statistics bureau noted that Q3 performance was driven mainly by the Services sector, which recorded a growth of 3.99 per cent and contributed 52.70 per cent to the aggregate GDP. The agriculture sector grew by 1.30 per cent, from the growth of 1.34 per cent recorded in the third quarter of 2022. The growth of the industry sector was 0.46%, an improvement from -8.00% recorded in the third quarter of 2022. In terms of share of the GDP, agriculture, and the industry sectors contributed less to the aggregate GDP in the third quarter of 2023 compared to the third quarter of 2022. In the quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at N60,658,600.37 million in nominal terms. This performance is higher when compared to the third quarter of 2022 which recorded aggregate GDP of N52,255,809.62 million, indicating a year-on-year nominal growth of 16.08%. The NBS noted that in real terms the oil sector growth was –0.85 per cent (year-on-year) in Q3 2023, indicating an increase of 21.83 percentage points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2022 (-22.67%). Growth also increased by 12.58 percentage points when compared to Q2 2023 which was –13.43 per cent. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of 12.47 per cent in Q3 2023. Nigeria recorded an average daily oil production of 1.45 million barrels per day (mbpd), higher than the daily average production of 1.20mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2022 by 0.25mbpd and higher than the second quarter of 2023 production volume of 1.22 mbpd by 0.23mbpd. According to the NBS, “the sector contributed 5.48 per cent to the total real GDP in Q3 2023, down from the figure recorded in the corresponding period of 2022 and up from the preceding quarter, where it contributed 5.66 per cent and 5.34 per cent respectively.” The non-oil sector grew by 2.75 per cent in real terms during the period under review. This rate was lower by 1.52 percentage points compared to the rate recorded in the same quarter of 2022 and 0.84 percentage points lower than the second quarter of 2023. “The sector was driven in the third quarter of 2023 mainly by Information and Communication (Telecommunication); Financial and Insurance (Financial Institutions); Agriculture (Crop production); Trade; Construction; and Real Estate, accounting for positive GDP growth. In real terms, the non-oil sector contributed 94.52% to the nation’s GDP in the third quarter of 2023, higher than the share recorded in the third quarter of 2022 which was 94.34% and lower than the second quarter of 2023 recorded as 94.66%,” the report stated.

Nigeria’s Currency Circulation Rises By N230bn In October

Despite reported scarcity of naira in the banking system, data made available by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) showed that currency in circulation rose eight per cent to a new high of N2.99 trillion by the end of October, 2023. The value represents a N230 billion increase from the N2.76 trillion recorded in September, 2023, and an increase of N1.6 trillion from N1.39 trillion recorded at the beginning of 2023. The apex bank defines the currency in circulation as currency outside the vaults of the Central Bank of Nigeria, meaning, all legal currency notes in the hands of the general public and in the vaults of the Deposit Money Banks (DMBs). With this new high of almost N3 trillion, currency in circulation appears to be on the rise to the level it was in October 2022 (N3.29 trillion) before the naira redesign policy of the CBN. Analysts say, it is surprising the currency in circulation is increasing, while the deposit money banks say there is scarcity of naira, with many of the banks restricting withdrawals by depositors to a maximum of N 20,000 as was the case with some banks in Lagos last week. “Certainly, if the apex bank said money in circulation it has to be naira, not the dollar and pounds sterling that is clearly a scarce commodity. How come, here in Lagos, many of the banks could not give more than N20,000 and their ATM machines perpetually dry last week”, David Agumo argued. It is widely believed that it was as a result of the scarcity of the naira that made the CBN announce the continued usage of the old naira notes as legal tenders indefinitely. While some economic analysts, believe the development may be attributed to the apex bank’s decision to extend the deadline for the old notes and the assurance of sufficient currency stock may indicate efforts to stabilise the situation and address any cash scarcity concerns, others say that decision made only recently can only affect currency in circulation for November and not October.

Food To Drive Nigeria’s Inflation Trend, Says Firm

CAPE Economic Research and Consulting has stated that food inflation will continue to drive inflation in Nigeria. In its Economic Newsletter for November, which was made available to NATIONAL ANCHOR on Friday, the economic think- tank said headline food and core inflation are expected to rise to 27.41, 31.01, and 22.50 percent respectively. While noting that inflation would heighten though at a moderate pace, the firm said the impact of food prices and exchange rates may play a strong role. “However, housing and utility prices had a more robust impact in October 2023 than in September 2023. This suggests that the impact of an increase in energy prices and exchange rate continues to permeate into the economy and would continue to reflect over a 12-month period at the least, through a base effect,” it said. On the Federal Accounts Allocation Committee (FAAC) allocation, the research firm noted that there may be a moderation in FAAC distribution for October 2023 adding that it may not dampen inflationary pressure significantly. “The Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) distributed the total sum of N903.48 billion among the three tiers of government in the month of October 2023 for revenue collected in September 2023. The amount distributed was lower than the N923.01 billion shared in September 2023 by N19.53 billion representing a decrease of 2.1 per cent. “A further breakdown shows that the Federal Government received N320.54.25 billion; States, N287.07 billion Local Government, N210.90 billion. Thirteen percent derivation fund distributed among beneficiary states amounted to N84.97 billion. Revenue allocation to all the three tiers of government generally declined in October 2023 except for the 13 percent derivation fund. “The decline was driven by the shortfall in non-oil. receipts, particularly, Companies Income Tax (CIT), Import and Excise Duties, and Value Added Tax (VAT). Collections from Petroleum Profit Tax (PPT), and Oil & Gas Royalties increased during the period,” it said.

Again, Local Equities Suffer Setback, Shed N126bn

Transactions on the floor of Nigerian Exchange on Tuesday sustained a declining profile, shedding N126 billion following the depreciation in the share prices of Oando Plc, Conoil Plc, Flour Mills Nigeria Plc, Zenith Bank, FTNCocoa, among others.The decline in the share price of 22 companies impacted negatively on market capitalisation of listed equities forcing it to decline by 0.34 per cent to N36.479 trillion from N36.605 trillion reported on Monday. The NGX All Share Index also depreciated by 230.47 basis points to 66652.17 points from 66882.64 points recorded the previous day. An analysis of the investment showed that Chi Plc and Cornerstone Insurance led gainers table during the day in percentage terms, 10 per cent each to close at N1.10 and N1.65 per share respectively. UPDC REIT followed with a gain of 9.86 per cent to close at N3.90 per share, Betaglass added 9.85 per cent to close at N51.30 per share while Courtvellle Business Solutions increased by 9.09 per cent to close at N0.60 per unit. On the contrary, Conoil Plc topped losers’ chart for the day shedding 9.99 per cent to close at N80.20 per unit, FTNCocoa trailed with a drop of 9.95 per cent to close at N1.72 per share, Oando Plc dipped by 9.81 per cent to close at N9.65 per unit, Berger Paint sheds 8.63 per cent to close at N11.65 Kobo, Lasaco Insurance down by 8.43 per cent to N1.85 per share. Volume of transactions declined by 44.205 million representing 0.83 per cent as investors traded 363.989 million shares worth N4.529 billion in 7018 deals against 408.194 million shares valued at N5.442 billion exchanged hands the previous day in 7707 deals. Transaction in the shares of AccessCorp led market activities with 49.712 million shares valued at N784.914 million, Transnational Corporation of Nigeria followed with account of 48.531 million shares cost N291.182 million, United Bank for Africa traded 45.716 million shares valued at N787.373 million, Zenith Bank exchanged 21.575 million shares cost N681.594 million, FTNCocoa exchanged 15.801 million shares valued at N28.120 million.

Rail transport revenue surges to N1.1bn in Q2 2023 –NBS

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has said that its revenue for the second quarter of 2023 increased to N1.1 billion from the sum of N768 million collected from rail passengers in the first quarter of this year. In its Transportation Data (Q2 2023)’ report published on its website Friday, the statistics bureau the figure represents a 69.7 per cent increase over the Q1 figure. On a year-on-year basis, the amount represents a 83 per cent increase over the sum of N598.74 million generated in the corresponding quarter of 2022. The NBS disclosed that in the quarter under review, a total of N188.03 million was generated from the transportation of goods and cargo by rail, amounting to an increase of 105.04 per cent when compared to the N91.70 million revenue in Q2 2022. Furthermore, the Bureau disclosed that miscellaneous income from rail transport in Q2 2023 amounted to N18.74 million, reflecting a decline of 62.31% from the N49.73 million reported in Q2 2022. On the number of passengers that travelled by rail during the quarter, the statistics agency reported a significant increase with a total of 474,117 passengers, which also indicated 12.25% increase compared to the 422,393 passengers reported in the same quarter of 2022. However, the report showed that the volume of goods transported by rail in Q2 this year reduced to 56,029 tons, from the 59,996 tons recorded in the first quarter of 2023 but that when compared to the corresponding quarter of 2022, the volume of cargo increased from 31,197 tons.

Equity market sustains bullish run, gains N158bn

Trading activities on the floor of Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Tuesday sustained an upward trajectory as the market appreciated by N158 billion. The market capitalisation of listed equities increased by 0.44 per cent to N35.842 trillion from N35.684 trillion reported the previous day. The NGX All Share Index also appreciated 286.26 basis points to 65488.67 points from 65202.41 points traded on Monday. Investors’ attention during the day were directed towards shares of Transnational Corporation of Nigeria (Transcorp), AccessCorp, and Fidelity Bank, ETI and others. An analysis of the investment showed that Cornerstones Insurance led gainers table with 9.84 per cent to N1.34 per unit, CWG followed with a gain of 9.74 per cent to close at N4.28 per unit, SCOA added 9.38 per cent to close at N1.40 per unit, ABC Transport increased by 8.33 per cent to close at N0.52 per unit. BUAFoods added 7.91 per cent to close at N165 per share. On the contrary, Nigerian Breweries, SUNU Assurance and Chellaram Plc recorded the highest loss during the day in percentage terms, declining by 10 per cent to close at N38.25, N0.72 and N3.96 per share respectively. John Holt trailed with a drop of 8.81 per cent to close at N1.45 per unit while Mutual Benefits dipped 6.82 per cent to close at N0.41 per share. The volume of trades increased by 61.864 million representing  26.71 per cent as investors traded 293.463 million shares valued at N4.122 billion in 5895 deals against 231.599 million shares worth N3.992 billion exchanged hands the previous day in 5494 deals. Transactions on the shares of Transnational Corporation of Nigeria (Transcorp) led market activities during the day with 41.441 million shares valued at N185.042 million, AccessCorp followed with account of 36.158 million shares worth N616.420 million, Fidelity Bank traded 32.105 million shares valued at N229.733 million, Omatek exchanged 15.006 million shares cost N4.293 million while Ecobank Transnational Corporate sold a total of 13.200 million shares valued at N208.479 million.

Nigeria’s intercity transport rises by 98.88% in June -NBS

The average fare paid by commuters for bus journeys within the city per drop increased by 97.88 percent from N649.59 in May 2023 to N1,285.41 in June 2023, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has said. In its Transport Fare Watch of June 2023 posted on its website, the NBS stated that on a year-on-year basis, it rose by 120.63% from N582.61 in June 2022. Analysts have attributed the astronomical increase to fuel pump price hike following the removal of fuel subsidy by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Transport Fare Watch for June 2023 covers the following categories: bus journey within the city per drop constant route; bus journey intercity (state route) charge per person; air fare charge for specified routes single journey; journey by motorcycle (Okada) per drop; and water way passenger transport. In another category, the average fare paid by commuters for bus journey intercity per drop rose to N5,686.49 in June 2023, indicating an increase of 42.09% on a month-on-month basis compared to N4,002.16 in May 2023. “On a year-on-year basis, the fare rose by 55.25% from N3,662.87 in June 2022. In air travel, the average fare paid by air passengers for specified routes’ single journey increased by 4.93% from N74,948.78 in May 2023 to N78,640.54 in June 2023. On a year-on-year basis, the fare rose by 40.22% from N56,082.64 in June 2022. “The average transport fare paid on Okada transportation was N618.52 in June 2023 which was 33.14% higher than the rate recorded in May 2023 (N464.55),” the statistics bureau stated. On a year-on-year basis, the fare rose by 48.34 percent when compared with June 2022 (N416.97). For water transport (waterway passenger transportation), the average fare paid in June 2023 increased to N1,366.22 from N1,045.15 in May 2023. On a year-on-year basis, it increased by 44.84% from N943.26 in June 2022

Nigeria’s equity market begins week positively with N76bn gain

The Domestic equity market opened the week on a positive note, gaining N76 billion following gains recorded by small and medium stocks. The market capitalisation of listed equities increased by 0.21 percent to N35.555 trillion from N35.479 trillion reported on Friday. The NGX All Share Index also appreciated by 138.63 basis points to 63336.71 points from 65198.08 points traded the previous day. An analysis of the investment showed that Enamalwa led gainers table during the day, gaining 9.86 per cent to close at N19.59 per share Wema Bank followed with a gain of 9.77 per cent to close at N4.72 per share, UPL also appreciated by 9.73 per cent to close at M2.48 per unit, SUNU Assurance added 9.68 per cent to close at N1.02 per share Gkaxosmith gained 9.55 per cent to close at N9.75 per unit. On the contrary, Omatek topped losers chart during the day in percentage terms, shedding 8.82 per cent to close at N0.31 per unit, Prestige insurance trailed with a drop of 7.84 per cent to close at N0.47 per unit, Mcnichols fell by 7.35 per cent to close at N0.63 per share, Cornerstone Insurance declined by 7.22 per cent to close at N0.90 per share, Wapic Insurance dipped by 5.97 per cent to close at N0.63 per unit. Volume of trades declined during the day as investors traded 334.333 million shares valued at N3.891 billion in 6940 deals against 363.147 million shares worth N6.073 billion in 6644 deals. Transactions in the shares of Sterling Bank Plc led market activities during the day with 55.141 million shares valued at N197.266 million, FCMB group followed with account of 28.249 million shares cost N173.843 million, Fidelity Bank exchanged 18.842 million shares cost N150.847 million. Japaul Gold traded 17.355 million shares cost N17.018 million while AccessCorp exchanged 17.100 million shares cost N296.635 million.