Tinubu’s Tax Reset and the Rising Cost of Living: Who Really Pays in 2026?

By the start of 2026, the Nigerian economy had crossed a critical psychological threshold. For millions of households, survival, not prosperity, had become the central economic concern. Food prices climbed relentlessly, transportation costs ballooned, electricity tariffs rose, and the naira’s weakness continued to hollow out purchasing power. Wages, meanwhile, remained stubbornly stagnant. In one word: Nigeria’s cost-of-living crisis swirl. This is the economic terrain into which President Bola Tinubu’s administration has launched Nigeria’s most aggressive fiscal overhaul in decades. Framed as reform, sold as necessity, and defended as inevitability, the new tax regime arrives not as a technocratic adjustment but as an additional burden on a population already stretched to its limits. The question confronting Nigerians in 2026 is no longer whether reform is needed, but who bears the cost, and who decides how much pain is acceptable. Reform in the Middle of Hardship The removal of fuel subsidies unleashed a cascade of price increases that reverberated through every sector of the economy. Transport fares surged, food inflation accelerated, and informal businesses, already operating on thin margins, struggled to survive. Electricity tariff hikes followed, further eroding household incomes and raising production costs. Currency policy adjustments compounded the crisis, making imports more expensive and local substitutes scarcer. Rather than pause to stabilize living conditions, the government pressed ahead with sweeping tax reforms. For many Nigerians, the timing alone felt punitive: a state demanding more at the precise moment its citizens had less to give. A New Tax Regime, Old Trust Deficit The overhaul rests on four major laws that replace Nigeria’s chaotic tax framework with a centralized, digitally monitored system. On paper, the logic is compelling: fewer taxes, better enforcement, broader compliance. In reality, centralization without trust risks becoming coercion by another name. Progressive tax bands and exemptions for low-income earners are cited as evidence of fairness. Yet the lived experience tells a different story. Middle-income Nigerians comprising, civil servants, professionals, and small traders, are watching their take-home pay shrink as inflation bites and long-standing reliefs disappear. What remains is a widening gap between what the state demands and what it delivers. “Widening the Net” or Tightening the Noose? Officials insist the reforms are about widening the tax net rather than increasing the burden. But a net cast over a struggling economy does not magically become lighter because it is broader. When energy costs soar, food prices spike, and wages lag inflation, taxation, no matter how elegantly designed, feels punitive. The promise that higher revenue will eventually translate into better schools, hospitals, and infrastructure rings hollow in a country where decades of oil wealth failed to produce durable public value. Nigerians have heard this argument before. Each time, they were asked to be patient. Each time, patience yielded diminishing returns. VAT and Regional Fault Lines: Old Battles, New Weapons No element of Tinubu’s tax reset better exposes Nigeria’s unresolved national question than the proposed restructuring of the Value Added Tax (VAT) sharing formula. Presented by the government as a neutral, efficiency-driven move toward derivation, the reform has instead resurrected the ghosts of Nigeria’s most bitter fiscal conflicts, conflicts never resolved, only postponed. By tilting VAT allocation more decisively toward where consumption and economic activity are recorded, the reform overwhelmingly favours Lagos and a handful of commercially dominant states in the South-West. Lagos’s outsized contribution to VAT revenue is frequently cited to justify this shift. The logic is straightforward: where revenue is generated, revenue should remain. But Nigeria’s history warns that straightforward logic often produces dangerous outcomes. In the First Republic, a strong derivation principle allowed regions to retain up to 50 percent of revenues from cocoa, groundnuts, and palm produce. That system collapsed not because derivation was inefficient, but because widening regional disparities turned it into a political weapon. The fiscal tensions it generated contributed to the instability that ended civilian rule. After the civil war, military governments centralized revenue sharing not out of ideological preference, but because national survival required redistribution. Oil revenues were pooled to hold a fractured country together, not to reward efficiency. The VAT debate now retraces that path, without the trauma that once forced compromise. Many Northern states, heavily dependent on VAT allocations to fund basic services, see the reform not as fiscal federalism but as fiscal punishment. Their argument is blunt: productivity cannot be rewarded fairly in a country where productivity itself has been shaped by decades of uneven federal investment, insecurity, and policy bias. When ports, rail lines, industrial clusters, and financial infrastructure are concentrated in one region, derivation ceases to be neutral, it becomes structural exclusion. The echoes of the Niger Delta struggle are unmistakable. For decades, oil-producing communities watched wealth flow to Abuja while bearing the environmental and social costs of extraction. Today, roles appear reversed: commercially dominant states demand to keep what they generate, while poorer regions warn that redistribution, the glue of the federation, is being quietly dismantled. The federal government’s response, that states should simply “grow their economies,” rings hollow in regions battling insurgency, banditry, collapsing education systems, and mass poverty. Growth is not summoned by rhetoric; it is enabled by security, infrastructure, and human capital, public goods that require funding in the first place. History is unambiguous: Nigeria’s most destabilizing crises often begin as revenue disputes disguised as technical reforms. When groups feel fiscally cornered, resistance follows, political, legal, and sometimes worse. Wether anyone agrees or not, a VAT regime that sharpens inequality without robust equalization mechanisms is not reform, it is deferred instability. The question therefore becomes, wether Nigeria is prepared for another combustive civil disorder? The Lagos Model Goes National The reforms unmistakably bear the imprint of the Lagos model that is notorious for its centralized authority, digital surveillance, and uncompromising enforcement. In Lagos, this model thrived on a dense commercial base and a large formal sector. Nationally, it risks flattening Nigeria’s economic diversity into a one-size-fits-all template. Equally corrosive is the perception, fair or not, that fiscal power is increasingly concentrated within a narrow

Petrol Price Increased To N630.63 In October -NBS

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), has said that the average retail price of a litre of petrol increased from N195.29 in October 2022 to N630.63 in October 2023. It made the declaration in its Petrol Price Watch for October 2023 released in Abuja on Wednesday. It stated that the October 2023 price of N630.63 represented a 222.92 per cent increase over the price of N195.29 recorded in October 2022. “Comparing the average price value with the previous month of September 2023, the average retail price increased by 0.71 per cent from N626.21. “On state profiles analysis, Zamfara paid the highest average retail price of N659.38 per litre, followed by Gombe and Borno at N658.33 and N657.27, respectively. “Conversely, Lagos, Oyo, and Delta paid the lowest average retail price at N590.95, N592.19 and N599.38 respectively,’’ it stated. Analysis by zones showed that the North-East Zone recorded the highest average retail price in October 2023 at N644.16, while the South-West recorded the lowest price at N616.81 per litre. The NBS also stated in its Diesel Price Watch Report for October 2023 that the average retail price was N1004.98 per litre. It said that the October 2023 price of N801.09 per litre amounted to a 25.45 per cent increase over the N801.09 per litre paid in October 2022. “On a month-on-month basis, the price increased by 12.82 per cent from the N890.80 per litre recorded in September 2023,’’ it added. On state profile analysis, the report said the highest average price of diesel in October 2023 was recorded in Plateau at N1150.00 per litre, followed by Nasarawa at N1138.00 and Benue at N1091.67. On the other hand, the lowest price was recorded in Rivers State at N824.44 per litre followed by Borno at N827.27 and Kebbi State at N845.00 per litre. In addition, the analysis by zones showed that the North-Central had the highest price of N1090.69 per litre, while North- East recorded the lowest price at N947.32 per litre. 

Average Price Of 5kg Cooking Gas Hits 8.89% -NBS

The average retail price for refilling a 5kg Cylinder of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (Cooking Gas) increased by 8.89% on a month-on-month basis from N4,189.96 recorded in September 2023 to N4,562.51 in October 2023. In its Liquefied Petroleum Gas (Cooking Gas) Price Watch (October 2023), the bureau noted that on a year-on-year basis, it increased by 1.76% from N4,483.75 in October 2022. On state profile analysis, Kano recorded the highest average price for refilling a 5kg cylinder cooking gas with N5,181.43, followed by Adamawa with N5,142.86, and Ogun with N5,093.75. On the other hand, Ebonyi recorded the lowest price with N3,971.43, followed by Osun and Edo with N4,000.00 and N4,025.00 respectively. “In addition, analysis by zone showed that the North-West recorded the highest average retail price for refilling a 5kg cylinder cooking gas with N4,738.20, followed by the North-Central with N4,662.62, while the South-East recorded the lowest with N4,088.65. “Also, the average retail price for refilling a 12.5kg cylinder of cooking gas increased by 14.04% on a month-on-month basis from N9,247.40 in September 2023 to N10,545.87 in October 2023. “On a year-on-year basis, this rose by 4.93% from N10,050.53 in October 2022. On state profile analysis, Edo recorded the highest average retail price for the refilling of a 12.5kg cylinder of cooking gas with N12,536.88, followed by Jigawa with N12,050.00 and Delta with N11,987.50. Conversely, the lowest average price was recorded in Zamfara with N9,050.00, followed by Lagos and Oyo with N9,071.05 and N9,407.14 respectively,” the statistics bureau stated. Analysis by zone showed that the South-South recorded the highest average retail price for refilling a 12.5kg cylinder cooking gas with N11,480.60, followed by the North-Central with N10,683.97, while the South-East recorded the lowest price with N9,847.42.