Food To Drive Nigeria’s Inflation Trend, Says Firm

CAPE Economic Research and Consulting has stated that food inflation will continue to drive inflation in Nigeria. In its Economic Newsletter for November, which was made available to NATIONAL ANCHOR on Friday, the economic think- tank said headline food and core inflation are expected to rise to 27.41, 31.01, and 22.50 percent respectively. While noting that inflation would heighten though at a moderate pace, the firm said the impact of food prices and exchange rates may play a strong role. “However, housing and utility prices had a more robust impact in October 2023 than in September 2023. This suggests that the impact of an increase in energy prices and exchange rate continues to permeate into the economy and would continue to reflect over a 12-month period at the least, through a base effect,” it said. On the Federal Accounts Allocation Committee (FAAC) allocation, the research firm noted that there may be a moderation in FAAC distribution for October 2023 adding that it may not dampen inflationary pressure significantly. “The Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) distributed the total sum of N903.48 billion among the three tiers of government in the month of October 2023 for revenue collected in September 2023. The amount distributed was lower than the N923.01 billion shared in September 2023 by N19.53 billion representing a decrease of 2.1 per cent. “A further breakdown shows that the Federal Government received N320.54.25 billion; States, N287.07 billion Local Government, N210.90 billion. Thirteen percent derivation fund distributed among beneficiary states amounted to N84.97 billion. Revenue allocation to all the three tiers of government generally declined in October 2023 except for the 13 percent derivation fund. “The decline was driven by the shortfall in non-oil. receipts, particularly, Companies Income Tax (CIT), Import and Excise Duties, and Value Added Tax (VAT). Collections from Petroleum Profit Tax (PPT), and Oil & Gas Royalties increased during the period,” it said.

12.5kg Cooking Gas To Hit N18,000 By December —NALPGM

President of the Nigerian Association of Liquefied Petroleum Gas Marketers (NALPGM), Oladapo Olatunbosun has warned that the price of 12.5kg of cooking gas could go as high as N18,000 if the present scarcity persists. According to Olatunbosun, scarcity of the product is biting hard in Lagos and some other states in the country, noting that the scarcity has pushed up the price from the previous N900 per kilogram to as high as N1,400 in Lagos. He stated further that there is no justification for the current increase in refill prices. He said that stakeholders along the value chain were using the foreign exchange rate somersault as a reason to increase LPG prices, adding that 12.5kg refill prices could reach N18,000 by December 2023. “There is a ridiculous hike in gas prices going on right now, and I am afraid that if the federal government does not step in to checkmate the activities of these terminal owners, prices could reach as high as N18 million per metric ton by December. This means that a 12.5kg could go as high as N18,000″. The cost of LPG is tied to the exchange rate between the Naira and the Dollar. As the Naira weakens against the Dollar, it directly impacts the price of LPG. In just a year, the Naira weakened considerably against the Dollar, escalating from N565 to N1040 in October 2023. These shifts affect the price of LPG. Nigeria’s LPG market is supplied by both local production and imports. Local production covers a significant share, and imports bridge the supply gap. Nigeria’s Liquefied Natural Gas (NLNG) contributes about 40 per cent of LPG demand through domestic production. The remaining 60 per cent is imported. The price of a 12.5kg cylinder of cooking gas surged by 26 percent in two weeks to N15,000 from N11,850 owing to high global crude oil and gas prices and Nigeria’s forex crises. This recent surge will further squeeze cash-strapped consumers, erode their purchasing ability and amplify a cost of living crisis in Africa’s most populous nation. It will also accelerate October inflation when the figures are released. The World Bank, in its latest Nigeria Development Update report for June 2023, said the loss of purchasing power from high inflation has increased poverty in the short term, pushing an estimated four million Nigerians into poverty between January – May 2023. The global bank estimates based on the NBS data show that 89.8 million Nigerians fell below the poverty line at the start of 2023, with an additional four million making it 93.8 million in May of 2023.

Inflation Rate Climbs To 26.72% In September -NBS

In September 2023, the headline inflation rate increased to 26.72% relative to the August 2023 headline inflation rate which was 25.80%, the National Bureau of Statistics has said.  In it’s CPI and Inflation Report for September, released Monday in Abuja, the bureau said the rates showed a showed an increase of 0.92% points when compared to the August 2023 headline inflation rate.  On a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate was 5.94% points higher compared to the rate recorded in September 2022, which was 20.77%. This shows that the headline inflation rate (year-on-year basis) increased in September 2023 when compared to the same month in the preceding year (i.e., September 2022). Furthermore, on a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in September 2023 was 2.10%, which was 1.08% lower than the rate recorded in August 2023 (3.18%).  This means that in September 2023, the rate of increase in the average price level was less than the rate of increase in the average price level in August 2023. 

Average Price Of 5kg Cooking Gas Stood At N4,115.32 In August –NBS

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), says the average price of 5kg of cooking gas increased from N4,072.87 recorded in July to N4,115.32 in August 2023. This is contained in the Bureau’s “Cooking Gas Price Watch’’ for August 2023 released on Monday in Abuja. The report said the August 2023 price represented a 1.04 per cent increase, compared to what was obtained in July 2023. However, the average price of 5kg of cooking gas decreased on a year-on-year basis by 7.66 per cent from N4,456 recorded in August 2022 to N4,115.32 in August 2023. On state profile analysis, the report showed that Kwara recorded the highest average price at N4,816.67 for 5kg cooking gas, followed by Benue at N4,766.67, and Zamfara at N4,756.25. It said on the other hand, Ondo recorded the lowest price at N3,299.29, followed by Ekiti and Nasarawa at N3,330.00 and N3,533.33 respectively. Analysis by zone showed that the North-Central recorded the highest average retail price at N4,501.26, followed by the North-West at N4,340.50 “The South-West recorded the lowest retail price at N3,3737.12,” the NBS said. Also, the NBS said the average retail price for 12.5kg cooking gas increased by 0.35 per cent on a month-on-month basis, from N9,162.11 in July 2023 to N9,194.41 in August 2023. However, the report said the average price of 12.5kg cooking gas dropped by 7.12 per cent on a year-on-year basis, from N9,899.34 recorded in August 2022 to N9,194.41 in August 2023. On state profile analysis, it showed that Cross River recorded the highest average price at N10,172.83 for 12.5kg cooking gas, followed by Ogun at N9,963.64 and Nasarawa at N9,883.37. On the other hand, the report showed that Adamawa recorded the lowest price at N7,597.92, followed by Borno at N8,103.69 and Gombe at N8,173.44. Analysis by zone showed that the South-South recorded the highest average retail price at N9,569.58 for 12.5kg, followed by the South-West at N9,344.17. The report said the North-East recorded the lowest price at N8,631.95. Similarly, the average retail price per litre of Kerosene rose to N1,272.40 in August 2023 on a month-on-month basis, showing an increase of 0.92 per cent, compared to N1,260.81 recorded in July 2023. According to its National Kerosene Price Watch for August 2023, on a year-on-year basis, the average retail price per litre of kerosene rose by 57.18 per cent from N809.52 in August 2022. On state profile analysis, the report showed that Adamawa recorded the highest average price at N1,745.83 per litre of kerosene in August 2023, followed by Benue at N1,468.33 and Abuja at N1,486.89. “On the other hand, Jigawa recorded the lowest price at N1,000 followed by Edo at N1,104.78 and Kaduna at N1,121.79.” The NBS said the analysis further showed that the North-East recorded the highest average retail price per litre of kerosene at N1,370.64, followed by the South-East at N1,332.49. It said the North-West recorded the lowest average retail price per litre of kerosene at N1,163.25. The report said the average retail price per gallon of kerosene paid by consumers in August 2023 was N4,351.53, indicating a 1.06 per cent increase from N4,306.07 in July 2023. “On a year-on-year basis, the average price per gallon of kerosene increased by 47.63 per cent from N2,947.65 recorded in August 2022.” On state profile analysis, it showed that Lagos recorded the highest average price at N5,350.83 per gallon of kerosene, followed by Katsina at N4,991.85 and Borno at N4,897.47. On the other hand, the report said Delta recorded the lowest price at N2,945.71, followed by Rivers and Oyo at N3,287.50 and N3,711.79, respectively. Analysis by zone showed that the North-East recorded the highest average price per gallon of Kerosene at N4,637.71, followed by the South-East at N4,590.69. The report said the South-South recorded the lowest average price per gallon of Kerosene at N3,727.30.